–Super Mario Bros. Movie | Image by The Alphabet
Key Points
- In 2023, there was a scarcity of billion-dollar blockbusters, with only “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” achieving the milestone globally.
- Disney faced challenges in the box office due to disappointing releases and shifting audience preferences, impacting its historical success in producing billion-dollar films.
- The Chinese market’s changing dynamics affected ticket sales for major blockbusters, contributing to the decline in the number of billion-dollar films worldwide.
- Despite the lack of individual billion-dollar hits, Disney remained a dominant force in the film industry, with a strong fan base and optimism for future box office achievements through diversified film lineups and upcoming releases like “Wish.”
This year has been marked by a significant scarcity of mega blockbusters, leading to questions about its underlying cause. In 2023, only one film, “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” by Universal, achieved the impressive milestone of surpassing $1 billion in global box office earnings, surprising many who expected other notable titles to perform better.
–The Super Mario Bros. Movie | Video by Illumination
Disney's Box Office Challenges
This current situation is in a stark contrast to that of previous years when numerous movies managed to reach the billion-dollar mark despite the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic. The impact of this paucity is particularly evident at Disney, a studio renowned for its successful franchises such as Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, and classic fairy tales. Although Disney was expected to dominate the box office this year, it has faced obstacles due to several disappointing releases in recent months. As a result, concerns have arisen about the rapidly shifting audience preferences, posing a challenge for Hollywood to adapt effectively.
Performance of Specific Films
Notably, movies like “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” part of the Marvel universe, failed to attract a broad audience beyond dedicated Marvel fans. Similarly, the recent Pixar release, “Elemental,” struggled to achieve the same level of domestic box office success as other films from the studio’s history. It only managed to marginally exceed the earnings of “Onward” from 2020, which had its theatrical run cut short caused by the pandemic.
Moreover, Disney’s Lucasfilm faced a daunting challenge with “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” released on June 30, as it aimed to recoup its substantial $300 million production costs. While the film garnered $122.1 million domestically and a respectable $221.4 million worldwide, it still fell short of the significant investment made in its creation.
Shawn Robbins, the chief analyst at BoxOffice.com, predicted Disney’s current state due to the pandemic and leadership changes. Disney’s top film series had immense success over the past decade, but sustaining that momentum indefinitely was never feasible. The studio’s position has been reshaped, leading to occasional fluctuations in success.
Amidst Disney’s challenges, there is a bright spot in James Gunn’s last project with Marvel Studios, “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3.” It is the third highest-grossing domestic release this year, earning an impressive $357.5 million, falling behind Sony’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” Interestingly, James Gunn now holds a leadership role at Warner Bros. Discovery’s DC Studios, signaling a new chapter in his career.
According to Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore, the billion-dollar club has become even more exclusive in 2023. Despite the presence of high-profile titles with renowned franchises, this year’s releases have been unable to cross the $1 billion threshold. The global movie marketplace has been highly competitive, and while some films achieved significant success, none attained the global market dominance required to join the billion-dollar club this year.
Chinese Market Impact
Previously, the Chinese market played a crucial role in driving billion-dollar box office hits, but it has become more selective in allowing Hollywood films and has developed its own thriving film industry. This shift has had a significant impact on the global box office performance of Hollywood films, as the Chinese market used to contribute a substantial portion of ticket sales for major blockbusters, especially Marvel films.
For instance, before the pandemic, Marvel movies typically amassed 15% to 22% of their total ticket sales from China. However, in the aftermath of the pandemic, the number of Hollywood films screened in China has dwindled, and those that made it to the screens generated lower box office receipts than before.
The changing dynamics in the Chinese film market are marked in the case of “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” where only 8% of tickets were sold in China, a noticeable decline compared to its predecessors.
According to industry analyst Shawn Robbins, this evolving Chinese market is now less secure in delivering massive blockbuster performances for certain films and franchises that used to heavily depend on its strong contribution. As a result, there is a notable gap in the global box office landscape, as major blockbusters in 2023 faced challenges with reduced ticket sales in China and a slower-than-expected response from domestic audiences. This has led to a decline in the number of billion-dollar films worldwide.
Historical Trend and Disney's Collective Box Office Performance
Over the last decade, the number of movies collecting more than $1 billion worldwide has significantly increased. Disney has been a major driver of this trend, with most top-grossing billion-dollar films belonging to the studio. From 2014 to 2019, Disney harvested at least one billion-dollar release each year, reaching a peak of seven such films in 2019.
The pandemic’s impact obviated the feasibility of producing such billion-dollar films in 2020 and 2021 for Disney. However, in 2022, “Avatar: The Way of Water” exceeded the expectations of movie-goers, crossing the eye-catching milestone of $2 billion in global box office earnings.
Polydoros from PaperAirplane suggests that 2019’s exceptional success might be an outlier, while 2023 could be considered an anomaly in the opposite direction. This theory advises disregarding the highest and lowest values and evaluating 2023’s box office performance relative to other years, considering the exceptional circumstances and challenges faced by the film industry during that period.
Several box office analysts, echoing Polydoros’s views, shared their opinions with mass media. They acknowledged that some of Disney’s recent releases may not have met expectations, but the studio remains a dominant force in both domestic and global box office markets.
Paul Dergarabedian’s analysis suggests that Disney is not expected to have any single film reaching the billion-dollar global mark this year. However, he highlights that when taking into account the collective performance of several Disney movies, such as “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” “The Little Mermaid,” “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” and “Elemental,” the studio has still managed to accumulate an impressive total of over $2 billion in global box office earnings. This indicates that while Disney might not achieve individual billion-dollar hits in 2023, its films as a whole continue to make a significant impact on the global box office.
Despite not having blockbuster hits in the billion-dollar range, Disney has emerged as the top studio in terms of domestic ticket sales this year. The data from Comscore reveals that Disney’s releases have accounted for a substantial 30% of all domestic ticket sales, amounting to $1.3 billion as of June. Additionally, Disney’s ascendancy is evident in its four films being part of the top 10 highest-grossing films domestically, further demonstrating the studio’s continued influence in the film industry.
While some of Disney’s recent film releases may have received mixed results, the studio’s collective box office performance remains formidable and underscores its significance in the market. Polydoros’s emphasis on the importance of content in determining success in the film industry echoes the idea that while individual films may not have reached the billion-dollar milestone, the appeal and strength of Disney’s storytelling and brand power still resonate with audiences worldwide.
Top 10 Highest-Grossing Movies of All Time | Update as of August 6, 2023
Rank Title Lifetime Gross($ Billions) Distributing Year Distributor
10 The Avengers 1.52 2012 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
9 The Lion King 1.66 2019 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
8 Jurassic World 1.67 2015 Universal Pictures
7 Spider-Man: No Way Home 1.92 2021 Sony Pictures Entertainment
6 Avengers: Infinity War 2.05 2018 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
5 Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens 2.07 2015 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
4 Titanic 2.26 1997 Paramount Pictures
3 Avatar: The Way of Water 2.32 2022 20th Century Studios
2 Avengers: Endgame 2.80 2019 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
1 Avatar 2.92 2009 Twentieth Century Fox
Disney's Future Outlook
Looking forward to Disney’s upcoming releases, including highly anticipated films, such as “Haunted Mansion,” “The Marvels,” and “Wish,” the potential for any of them to achieve the coveted billion-dollar benchmark remains uncertain. However, Disney’s diversified film lineup and strong fan base provide hope for future box office achievements.
Shawn Robbins’ optimism about Disney’s performance in 2024 is fueled by the studio’s original animated film, “Wish.” Drawing parallels to the massive success of the “Frozen” series, Robbins sees the potential for “Wish” to resonate with audiences and make a significant impact on the box office later in the year. This sanguine outlook, combined with the excitement surrounding Disney’s upcoming film schedule, showcases the studio’s continued relevance and potential for blockbuster success in the years to come.
